Memo on Venezuela

TO:  President Trump

FROM:  Aran Hamilton-Grenham

DATE:  1 April 2018

SUBJECT:  United States Venezuelan Policy

SUMMARY: President Trump has lead the United States to impose sanctions that restricted United States persons from buying bonds or financing the Venezuelan government in anyway in response to the crisis there.  The result has been that Venezuela has been starved of financial resources that it needs to address inflation and starvation of its people.  He has also given a speech on the United Nations floor where he stated that the very system of Venezuela’s government is not a viable one.  Military action has even been threatened against Venezuela, to which President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela has responded by making it a rallying cry against United States imperialism.  To best confront the issue of Venezuelan democratic regression and its move to authoritarianism, the United States should shift to aiding and helping the people of Venezuela as best it can, so that humanitarian needs can be met for the people.  After this, the people of Venezuela, when they are not in such a desperate place, will have the opportunity to enact the change in government that they want, rather than having it imposed upon them.

CONTEXT:  Hugo Chavez was elected in 1998, running on a leftist platform that promised an end to neoliberal economic policies.  Instead, Chavez promised to nationalize Venezuela’s vast oil reserves and deliver economic prosperity to everyone rather than just the wealthy.  Initially, his programs were largely successful because of oil prices raising which the government used to finance its welfare programs.  After Chavez had died, Nicolas Maduro and attempted to continue Chavez’s policies.  But, when oil prices fell from 111 dollars per barrel in 2014 to 27 dollars per barrel in 2016, the economy fell into chaos.  The Venezuelan GDP shrank 15 percent in 2016 and inflation rose to 800 percent at the same time.  The result was protests against the government, to which it responded with a crack down on political opposition.  Instead of addressing and acknowledging the issue Maduro has publicly stated “We need to reduce extreme consumption to achieve a point of equilibrium between supply and a fair price” (Business Insider, 2014).  The issue is one that the government does not seem ready or willing to address.  Economic sanctions and military action as has been threatened by President Trump are not viable actions based on the previous evidence.  Sanctions have not worked to overturn regimes such as Cuba, North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Russia, and various others.  Military action implies long term United States involvement that would be met with the ire of the entire region, similar to what happened in Iraq.

ALTERNATIVE:  The alternative policy the United States can pursue is one that would eliminate all sanctions except for those that specifically target members of President Maduro and his inner circle rather than general ones that encompass and effect all of Venezuela.  Furthermore, aid can be given in food and medical supplies by the United States to try and help those that are in Venezuela.  While this may help the Maduro regime, it is important to note that to this day 25% of Venezuelan citizens still support the Chavismo policies of the government despite the crisis.  Public support may not be high, but it is still present.  Instead of the United States providing a scapegoat for the regime, it should provide people with basic needs for life as much as possible as it has in response to various crises around the world.  

MAIN ARGUMENT:  Venezuela is not a country that has a high view of the United States.  Given the history of neoliberal policies prior to Chavez coming to power, the Venezuelan people largely believe that the United States is a colonial power that harms the domestic economy there.  If the people of Venezuela, in any number, can see that the United States is aiding them, that could in large part help to repair our image in a region where we have been losing influence.  On top of this, the United States would also change the mindset of the Venezuelan people.  As of right now, there is real fear in Venezuela about United States military intervention.  If they see and understand that the United States is actually helping them, they will then in turn come to question the general philosophy and attitude of the government.  Finally, by easing economic sanctions and providing aid, there is a potential that stability in some part could come back to the country.  While some may argue that this will lead to the Maduro regime stabilizing more than anything, there are various examples elsewhere that a burgeoning middle class actually assists democratic development.  Just looking at Chile, which had significant economic growth under General Augusto Pinochet, we see a country that when given the opportunity to vote against a dictator, it did.  It is well founded that “Rising prosperity increases popular demands for freedom” (Rhodes and Shellenberger, 2017).  The people of Venezuela, if given stability, will then continue to demand political reforms.   If further government action is taken to crack down on political opposition, in truth the only option would be military action which is in the end would turn into a financially irresponsible venture for the United States.

CONCLUSION:  Morally, the United States can not stand by and simply watch what is happening in Venezuela.  On top of this, the United States has a particularly bad image in Latin America due to its tendency to intervene and interfere in the domestic practices of these countries.  If the United States shows that it is a humanitarian power, it could gain more prestige by showing that it is a moral power.  On top of this, the economic stabilization of Venezuela, rather than continued turmoil will allow for the people of Venezuela to demand and effect change on their own terms.  any foreign force forcing political change against a great deal of the population there would lead to the future Venezuelan regime being unstable and lacking legitimacy.  The targeted sanctions that would only impact the ability of political elites of Venezuela to do business in the United States would still allow the United States to assert its desire for political change and hurt those that are in turn hurting the people of Venezuela.